Here's your trivia answer to "What is Minnesota?":
The only Big Ten team Rich Rodirugez is undefeated against.
WOOO It's Little Brown Jug week and I'm sort of not that excited. Is it the Lloyd years already? Minnesota returns to Michigan's schedule after a 2-year absence when we K.C. Lopata-ed our way to victory in 2008. Since then, the Gophers haven't really budged from being a bottom dweller in the Big Ten. Already starting the season off 1-3, including their most recent loss to an FCS team (North Dakota State), Minny isn't exactly coming into the Big House with a full head of steam. If RPS could be applied to scheduling, Hoke is benefiting from a +3 thus far this season.
The stories this week have mostly been about Minnesota's health (or lack thereof)--all the way from their head coach to their 3rd/4th corner. The good news is that Jerry Kill, who recently had a 2nd episode involving seizures, is back on the practice field and will be on the sidelines tomorrow. The bad news is that their starting quarterback, Marqueis Gray, is questionable due to a foot injury. That doesn't exactly bode well for a team already down in the dumps. All signs point to Michigan cruising.
THE OFFENSIVE MATCHUP I'M WATCHING IS... Denard vs. Minnesota's secondary. If you read this blog consistently, you know I've been slightly obsessed about Denard's passing regression over the past few weeks. Passing against Minnesota's secondary is an opportune time to raise Denard's confidence for NW and Sparty. Thanks to one of Ace's tweets yesterday, here's a nice breakdown of who Denard is facing:
And this is before Stoudemire went down so somebody will be replacing him. Statistically, Minnesota has given up more passing yards than any other Big Ten team: 1114 yards or 278.5 Y/G. Consider Denard's 156 Y/G passing average, which is generous thanks to Notre Dame, and something has to give. I suspect Borges' playcalling will mirror Eastern in terms of passing with the backs getting a heavier load; Denard definitely won't get 26 carries. I think Denard works out more kinks in the passing game and everything else stays vanilla.
THE DEFENSIVE MATCHUP I'M WATCHING IS... Heavy rotation in Michigan's two-deep vs. any Gopher on the field. Countess' debut last week was a pleasant surprise. Let's see more of that. Other players I'll be watching for include Desmond Morgan, Raymon Taylor, Carvin Johnson, Frank Clark and of course Cam, who is expected to return, and Herron, who is still a bit of a mystery. The defensive unit played its best game last week so let's hope they can replicate their performance and continue improving. I'll feel more comfortable that 2011 is not 2009/2010 if we kick off Big Ten season without an Indiana-style shootout.
IF I HAD ONE WISH ON SPECIAL TEAMS IT'D BE... It's already come true. Hagerup is back! And I actually believe Hoke when he says Gibbons missed FG was a fluke. Let's see a 30-35 yarder go through the uprights, eh?
I AM WORRIED ABOUT... Injuries. Knock on a thousand pieces of wood. Also, is it weird that when I see Fitz or Smith get slammed in the middle of a pile, all I can think is "Thank god that is not Denard."? Also seriously, Woolfolk, make it through the game and I'll be pumped.
How often do I get to post
a picture of Michael Schofield?
I AM COMFORTABLE WITH... Schofield. Barnum should get tomorrow off to recover from last week's injury so it's Schofield at LG. I had a brief Twitter conversation with The Wolverine Blog's new writer, Jeff Wickman (@JWick180), about Schofield vs. Barnum. He prefers Schofield anyway and I semi-agreed: I think Barnum's better when he actually connects on blocks but he often whiffs or finds himself blocking nobody. Either way, it shouldn't be a noticeable change.
I AM EXCITED ABOUT... Nebraska @ Wisconsin. Yup. Also, check out Mike's picks this week. I agree with his introduction about how weird it is to root for Illinois, Wisco and even Ohio State because of how the teams are separated into divisions.
BOLD PREDICTION... Borges comes out throwing. And by that, I mean Denard will get 20-25 attempts which is a lot for him. Seriously, nothing about Notre Dame was real.
ALMOST FORGOT... Nothing. On a side note, the game is a "Maize Out", which has lost its allure (if it had any at all) since the marketing strategy is being deployed against teams like Minnesota. The Hoover Street Rag has an excellent rant on this.
GAME PREDICTION... Denard comes out firing with mixed but improved results. It's still mostly a heavy and steady dose of Fitz and Smith though. Michigan takes an early lead and puts this away mid-way through the 3rd quarter. The Little Brown Jug decides to buy instead of rent in Ann Arbor; that thing isn't going anywhere. Michigan 38-10.
Through the encouragement of Brian @ MGoBlog, I decided to update my analysis regarding Denard's apparent regression in his passing game for SDSU, much like what I did with Eastern. I got the feeling Brian spotted something last week's post might highlight this week. Lo and behold, some interesting items surfaced. I also decided to skip the zone read stuff and just focus on the passing. But a quick note on ZR: after I watched MGoVideo's Every Snap, there was an unmistakable high usage of ZR again; it's become an integral part of this offense. Also, 21 carries by Denard--perfectly balanced between Notre Dame's 16 and Eastern's 26--looks like the sweet spot Borges wants. Whether it's by luck or design--probably a little bit of both--Denard made it through non-con without sitting out a play via injury. You can't say that for 2009 or 2010.
In the air, though, it's still pretty ugly. The box score is once again not kind to Denard: 8/17, 93 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs. Ironically, the game in which we won by the closest margin, Notre Dame, was the one he put up career passing numbers in yards (338) and TDs (4). The other 3 opponents held him, or more accurately he held himself, to under 100 (!) yards passing and 50% completion. Not to mention Denard already has 6 picks through 4 games, the most of any other Big Ten quarterback. No matter how you spin it, the numbers look bad.
I counted 20 called passing plays (excluding possible audibles, more on this later). 17 were pass attempts, 2 were Denard pulling down the ball to run, and 1 was pass interference that would have been incomplete anyway. Here's the breakdown including score changes so you get a better feel of the game situation when Borges makes these calls:
Not a good sign to start.
[Not to go down the dark path of Brian's UFR but I created a simple (subjective) metric for pocket pressure between 0-3 with 0 being Hemingway jumpball TD against ND time and 3 being hit while throwing. 1 is more of internalized pressure: hand in the face, defender charging. 2 is an effective hurry where Denard is within pushing/hitting distance. Lastly, the * indicates a called passing play not counted in the box score]
SCORE: TIED 0-0 *3+5 | shot | drops back, sees giant hole, runs for 19 yards and first down, P0
1+10 | center | PA, rolls right, bad feet, jump throws, overthrows Odoms, P0 (incomplete)
2+10 | center | PA, sets feet, tunnel throwback screen to Gallon, P1 (complete)
SCORE: MICHIGAN 14-0 1+10 | shot | fakes run, steps back, sets feet, good throw to Roundtree, P0 (complete) *2+4 | shot | PA, jumpy feet, P2, overthrows Roundtree but PI called, still bad throw
2+6 | center | PA, rolls right, looks at covered receivers, P1, sets feet, checks down to V. Smith (complete)
1+20 | shot | steps back, P0, sets feet, quick pass to Roundtree (complete) 2+15 | shot | PA, sets feet, P1, hits Koger on target but dropped (incomplete) *3+15 | shot | few steps back, P2, steps into pocket, takes off, runs 40 yards for gain of 10 2+11 | shot | PA, terrible footwork, P2, awkward throw to covered Smith (incomplete) 3+11 | shot | rolls right, P2, sets feet, good pass to Hemingway (complete) SCORE: MICHIGAN 21-0 2+13 | shot | rolls left, stares down receiver, P1, sets feet, accurate pass but picked off (incomplete, INT) 2+6 | shot | PA, rolls right, barely sets feet, P2, inaccurate pass to Koger (incomplete) 3+6 | shot | drops back, steps into pocket, P1, throws while running forward into tight coverage on Koger (incomplete, INT) 3+7 | shot | steps back, P1, sets feet, nice screen pass to Smith (complete) 2+10 | shot | PA, sets feet, P1, complete to Dileo in stride, YAC (complete) SCORE: MICHIGAN 21-7
2+12 | center | PA, rolls right, sets feet, P2, overthrows a deep ball intended for Roundtree (incomplete)
3+12 | shot | drops back, steps into pocket, fake runs, pulls up and throws on run, P2, bad feet, bad throw but caught by Smith (complete) 3+9 | shot | drops back, happy feet, P0, overthrows badly (incomplete)
PASSING POINTS
Among the 20 passing plays called, 4 had Denard under center--a number that seems to be shrinking each week. He was 2/4 from there with both his completions being short but effective passes: a tunnel throwback screen to Gallon and a checkdown to Smith (more on this later). His 2 incompletions, however, were grossly overthrown. Most intriguing, every pass play from under center had playaction attached. It's clear Borges only wants Denard throwing through the threat of a run, whether it be under center or in the gun.
In shotgun, Denard still struggles: 6/13 and 2 INTs. He had 16 plays called from there and ran twice, both reasonable decisions, while the other unrecorded attempt would have been incomplete with or without the PI. Borges mixed in playactions and rollouts with little success of building any sort of rhythm; Denard never completes more than 2 passes in a row the entire game. And though he wasn't given many opportunities to throw picks from under center (what a terrible way to start a sentence), both his interceptions did come from the shot.
I'd be remiss not to point out how small these samples sizes can get when you break them down. Denard passes pretty infrequently as is. You can't really take 4 shotgun playaction roll passes and say with certainty that he's totally comfortable or completely uncomfortable operating from there. Having said that, there are some pretty good observations you can make. Here are mine:
Footwork. This is by far the biggest thing that jumps out at me, the most predictive of Denard's passing success. If you look only at his completions, 7/8 had good footwork where he plants and throws accurately. If you look at the 10 "sets feet" plays above, he had 7 completions, 1 that should have been completed to Koger (good throw), 1 pick which was an accurate pass just awful decision/receiver lock and 1 overthrown deep ball. In response to Brian's mechanics vs. nerves, it starts with the mechanics. Denard's footwork is inconsistent in both sets.
Hard to tell but both Denard's feet are in the air for this overthrown ball to Odoms.
The (lack of a) deep ball. In my estimation, it just isn't there. People, myself included, need to let this go. I would guess that even his "long" completions of the past probably came from YAC. I'd be curious to see Denard's completion % of any pass where the football is in the air for over 20 yards. Even with his feet set, Denard just doesn't have the touch. And I suspect he won't magically get it in the next 2 months. Borges will still take his shots downfield but if he wants to stretch the field next year, Denard will have to work on this relentlessly during the offseason.
The 2 picks. Going back to Denard's footwork, it shouldn't surprise anybody that his feet get worse as the play gets extended, either due to his primary read being covered or pressure coming his way. Once the play breaks down so does his footwork. The 2 picks are interesting to me because they come from 2 extremes I imagine must be frustrating for Borges to correct. On one hand, if you coach Denard to just go with his primary read, not allowing the time for his feet to wander sort of speak, he lasers in on receivers and is prone to corners/safeties reading his eyes and breaking off their assignments. On the other hand, if you coach him to go through his reads or step up in the pocket, his feet produce bad throws mixed with bad decisions.
Borges' playcall progression. I mentioned last week that if you were to graph Borges' playcalling, it would look like a U with higher frequency from under center towards the beginning and end of the game. With only 4 attempts under center, I can't make the same conclusion. However, it is interesting to note that he called only 4 pass plays while Michigan had a lead of 7 or less and 16 while he had a lead of 14 or more. SDSU is obviously not Eastern and with a strong emphasis on a fast start during the week, it is evident Borges understands that does not include Denard throwing, under center or in the gun. Starting fast is running the ball and running the ball a lot.
Unfavorable passing situations. In Denard's defense, he's also being asked to throw in some unfavorable passing situations. 8/20 called passing plays were on downs over 11 yards, so taking out the 1st-and-10s. None of his 7 3rd down calls were under 5 yards. That sucks for a quarterback comfortable passing the mall, much less for Denard who isn't totally polished and trying to balance two systems.
Audibles. I counted 2 audibles both while Denard was under center and felt a blitz coming. The 1st one ended up being a broken play via miscommunication as Denard tried to hand off the ball in 1 direction and Smith ran in the other, no gain. The 2nd play was also checked into a run for no gain. If I were to guess, both plays were originally called passing plays--a simple check from pass to run. I know Denard isn't quite at Advanced Audibles 495 but it looked pretty obvious. It also reveals how uncomfortable he is with pressure under center; he immediately checks to a run. In the future, I'd like to see him audible (taught by Borges) out from under center and into the gun. Baby steps, I guess.
Denard's best play. I cringe when Denard stares down his receivers or seems to have already made his mind up of where he's going with the football before the snap. But on one play, under center, he seems to put it all together. It's the 7th play where he looks right at covered receivers then calmly looks left, sets his feet, and checks down with an accurate throw to Smith for a first down (before he fumbles). Such a simple play and probably standard for most quarterbacks but believe me, it's a huge step forward for Denard. Video:
Passing series dedicated to RichRod. In the middle of the game, when Denard starts a series 1st-and-20, Borges briefly puts on his Rodriguez mask. Whether or not that's indicative of what Borges believes is the best chance to pick up 20 yards in 3 downs, I'm not sure. But he puts Denard in shot all 3 times: a 5-yard hitch route by Roundtree, a great playaction to Koger that should have been 15+ yards (ARGH) and then Denard scrambling on 3rd and 15 which he almost gets a first down himself. I really wish Koger caught that pass because previous to this series, Denard completes what I think is his best passing play of the game. That's a momentum-killing drop that messes with Denard's confidence and nerves.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Well if I had the answer, I wouldn't be here speculating. This is what Borges gets paid to do and frankly I do not envy his position. While Borges seems to have fully embraced Rodriguez's ground game, he's more reluctant incorporating his passing philosophy. The numbers trending away from center and towards the gun indicate he's getting there, just slower. The playactions from under center, the rollouts, the quick-decision routes--these are all designed to play towards Denard's strengths, which is what a good coordinator does.
The problem is that Denard hasn't shown many strengths in his passing game outside of hitting wide-open receivers because the defense freaks out at the thought of him running. And at this point of the season, it becomes more figuring out how to manage him rather than teach him. It's unlikely he's going to develop a deep ball by season's end and I don't see his footwork massively improving week-to-week. To coach him is to choose the lesser of two evils: putting him in positions where his footwork matters less versus more uncomfortable scenarios like stepping into a pocket where he tends to develop happy feet. Denard is improving after the intial drop off this year, yes, but not improving fast enough. The reason still very unclear.
As much as I want to hammer him being under center sometimes, there are some positives. That check down pass to Smith is a glimmer of hope that Denard is capable of doing the things Borges will ask of him in the long-term. And by long-term, I mean next year. The question all along has been whether we should ask Denard to adapt to Borges or Borges to adapt to Denard. And though there's no perfect answer, Denard has shown he can probably go 20% of the way Borges if goes the other 80%. And those percentages reflect the playcalling right now. I think you'll see a very similar passing strategy deployed for the rest of Big Ten season.
Rhythm is important. But establishing that rhythm has been difficult for one reason or another. I personally think its the unfamiliarity of the routes Borges insists on running; Denard looks much more poised when he's in shot, fakes the handoff, takes 1 step back and fires the seam. But the flip side of establishing a rhythm is it feels like a zero-sum game. We ask Borges to develop a rhythm for Denard but it's much easier said than done with so few attempts per game? We ask Borges to put Denard in better passing downs but you tell me whether you rather have Denard run or pass on 3rd-and-2 or 2nd-and-5. That Denard runs so successfully hurts his ability to establish a rhythm for a pass. This is why Borges keeps him in at the end of Eastern. This is why Borges calls an under center, PA deep late in an out-of-reach game. These are the meaningful game reps Denard doesn't get to practice/execute when the game still hasn't been won.
If it were up to me, and thank god it's not, I'd look long and hard at why those under center, PA, screen passes or check downs work and give that Rodriguez series another shot. I'd abandoned the deep ball unless the situation absolutely necessitates that throw. I'd avoid stepping into pockets, and especially coach Denard never to throw once the play breaks down while he's in the pocket--just run. And outside the pocket, I'd have him rolling right, not left, setting his feet, and practice reading simple 2-man routes. I look at Denard this year as I looked at the defense last year: he doesn't need to be outstanding, just good enough where his arm doesn't cost the game. As the analogy goes, Rodriguez : Defense :: Borges : Denard's arm. I could care less if Denard throws 100-150 yards/game the rest of the season. But if he does it without the picks and increases his completion percentage slightly with some help from the receivers, I'll take it. That's all we need from Denard this year to probably exceed expectations. The improved defense and running game, which he is an overwhelmingly large part of, should take care of the rest.
When Nebraska signed up with the Big Ten last year I was pretty happy. I was glad that we would have a conference title game and I love Nebraska's rich football tradition.
We all worried about the division split but the majority of us were pleased with how the twelve teams were separated. While it was disappointing to have Michigan in another division from Ohio St at least we still play them at the end of the year and could play them twice.
That was all announced a year ago and since then we have all gone about our business. Now that Big Ten season is about to kick off we are starting to realize some of the residual effects of having teams in divisions. (Outside of the stupid names the divisions are called.) As I looked at the schedule this week I found myself realizing that I will be pulling for the teams in the other division this week. Specifically, Illinois, Wisconsin and yes, even Ohio State.
Now rooting for Illinois and Wisconsin isn't that big of a deal, I just want Michigan to be a game up on a few teams in our division after week one. The Ohio State/Michigan State match up is what really peaked my interest. Now if you ask most Michigan fans which team they hate more you will get answers on both sides and for various reasons. The two answers I would expect to hear the most is to root for "neither" or "which ever one can help Michigan."
Now with these divisions and the fact Michigan plays Sparty in two weeks, it is clear we could use a little help from the school down South. This makes me weary. I don't root for OSU ever. I am not from Michigan so I don't have the disdain for Sparty like others who have to deal with MSU fans in their group of friends and family. My perfect fall Saturday is Michigan winning, OSU losing and not caring how MSU did that day.
This Saturday I will have to be slightly pleased if the Buckeyes take them down and it is a strange feeling. Normally I am just rooting for the game between these two schools to end much like Monty Python and the Holy Grail ended, with the cops showing up and arresting everyone. O well, part of what we signed up for I guess. On with the picks...
Thursday: USF at Pitt 8 PM EST- O Pitt, you are so sneaky. Just up and leaving the Big East high and dry. Only Pitt could possibly figure out a way to run off both their rivals and consider it a genius idea. In terms of the game, both of these teams are pretty good but their QBs are horrible. I watched part of the Pitt game last week and Calvin Magee kept calling plays like Denard was still his QB. Tino is no Denard. USF 27-20.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M Noon EST- The Arkansas fans will teach the Aggie fans how to prefect the "SEC, SEC, SEC" chant. I am still not sold that joining the SEC is the best decision they could make since instead of bowing down to Texas they will now bow down to six other teams but at least the SEC is stable. I watched both these teams last week and I think we are going to get a shootout. Neither of these teams are elite but this game will be fun to watch. Arkansas 38-34.
Northwestern at Illinois Noon EST- The first of the inter divisional match-ups. Persa will be back for NW and he is legit. They are different team with him but I am not sure he is going to be truly effective for a few weeks. Illinois struggled last week but I still think they will run the ball right down the Wildcats throat just like last year. Illinois 31-20.
Auburn at South Carolina 3:30 EST- I love watching South Carolina for the same reason people watch the Jersey Shore, it is just so entertaining to watch a train wreck. Stephen Garcia is so hilarious to watch and I never know what he will do next. He wins the Kerry Collins award for most likely to be seen chugging a beer on the sidelines. The Gamecocks are loaded other than him and I would hope they can beat a young Auburn team at home. Although with Garcia we never know what we might see. South Carolina 24-17.
Baylor at Kansas St 3:30 EST- This game wins this weeks award for the most unlikely game to be picking a month into the season. Like most of you I know only one thing about this game and that is Robert Griffin is really good. I am going to go with him. Baylor 48-21.
Michigan St at Ohio St 3:30 EST- I think this game comes down to the MSU offensive line versus the OSU front seven. MSU is banged up and they will struggle with the pressure. The OSU offense will play Tressel ball with Braxton and their defense will force a big turnover. No emotion with this pick. OSU 23-16.
Clemson at Virginia Tech 6 EST- The Sammy Watkins crush continues as I will yell for Boyd to throw to him every play. Clemson will try to make it three straight big wins in a row but there is one problem, this game is in Blacksburg. Clemson will have to wait for the ACC Title game to beat the Hokies. Va Tech 24-14
Texas at Iowa St 7 EST- The Gus Johnson game of the week will take place in Ames, Iowa. Everything seems right again with the Longhorns now that they have a McCoy as their QB. The only problem is that Iowa St might have an even cooler sounding named QB in Steele Jantz. I am going with the Cyclones for no other reason than Jantz and their are no repercussions for being wrong. Woo. ISU 20-18.
Alabama at Florida 8 EST- Urban did not leave the cupboard bare for Muschamp and Weis. Just look at this run by Jeff Demps from last week. I would pay to watch him run against Denard. On defense the Gators still have all that talent along their defensive line that Urban recruited two years ago. Main thing to watch here is does John Brantley implode against a legit defense. Somehow I just cant shake the thought of him going all Garcia here and blowing this game in the 2nd half. Bama 24-13.
Nebraska at Wisconsin 8 EST- The big game of the night and I really don't think it will be that close. While Nebraska is getting all of its defensive stars back for this game I think they will be shell shocked at how bruising that Wisconsin O line really is. I expect the Badgers to make a statement early in conference play. Wisconsin 38-17.
As always, enjoy the games. For you baseball fans out there, good luck. I have no idea what baseball playoffs are like but they look like fun.
While I enjoy reading Picture Pages, either by Brian @ MGoBlog or Chris @ BWS, I generally try to avoid replicating them here. I admittedly lack a deep understanding of schemes like they have and the last thing I want to do is spend an hour loading a dozen pictures only to explain the whole damn play incorrectly. But a few plays caught my eye on my 2nd go-around for SDSU so I'll try to highlight what I'm seeing and thinking.
While the defensive line and secondary earned significant praise following the 28-7 victory, the linebacking corps was inconsistent at best. True to his style, Hoke pointed out that they need to play better as a whole and then proceeded to highlight positive plays made by each of the backers. One of the things SDSU loved to do was to mix in a lot of pre-snap motion to confuse the defense. This typically sets off a firestorm on the defensive line, realigning last second, while the linebackers/secondary adjust (or should adjust) their alignment and coverage responsibilities.
The Aztecs opened both halves with identical running plays yet different pre-snap motions. They were defended by Michigan with varying results: poorly during the 1st half, excellent during the 2nd. That either shows positive defensive adjustments made by Mattison during halftime or perhaps just a better understanding of the play from different linebackers. Let's take a look:
PLAY #1: 1st drive of the 1st half, Score 0-0. 2nd and 7.
This is just to show the original backfield formation; BTN didn't switch to a side view. Notice which side the FB is on (TE off the screen but he's on the right also).
Much better. As you tell from the red arrows, the FB and TE switch sides. This puts Michigan's defensive line in a tizzy, scrambling to match up with the strong and flex side. RVB/Roh switch places, as does Martin/Heininger. Jake Ryan is the EMLOS.
Lindley sets a man in motion as Ryan watches. Man coverage. It appears Floyd is signaling to Kovacs to pick him up.
This is the snap. Floyd is still signaling and Kovacs has gotten the hint. Notice how Ryan has moved away from the EMLOS back to a normal 4-3 set. More importantly (and disturbingly), both Demens and Hawthorne have not budged. Demens who plays MLB is now at the OLB position. Something's up: either the LBs should shift or Hawthorne should be adjusting to an OL position with the pre-snap motion. Aztecs completely flipped their strong side and the only man who moved was Ryan.
Handoff. A couple of things here from the Aztecs: the RG is pulling to the strong side, the LG/TE engage in a scoop block on RVB, the FB is running towards the LOS. Demens immediately sees an open B gap and runs uphill to fill it. Is he supposed to? If the LBs should have shifted, then his responsibility should be to the outside. If Hawthorne is out of position, then Demens is making the proper play here, even though he's leaving 2 LBs to the left of him.
The LG peels off the scoop block and takes on Demens, leaving the FB searching for somebody to block on the 2nd level. The pulling RG is right behind the TE now, who is still on RVB, anticipating Hawthorne. Ryan is nowhere near the play anymore but it's not his fault.
The RG actually whiffs on Hawthorne but he's taken a poor angle at Hillman and can't get to him cleanly. Ryan is in pursuit. Dude hustles.
And catches Hillman 4 yards past the LOS. It ends up being a gain of 6. 3rd and 1.
VIDEO #1 (H/T: MGoVideo... with... interesting music choice?):
PLAY #2: 1st drive of the 2nd half (after Denard's 1st pick), Score 21-0 Michigan. 1st and 20.
Pre-snap formation. The Aztecs are going to flip it again, except this time the WR is already on the eventual strong side.
Pre-snap movement is a little different though. This time the FB takes the TE spot while the TE turns into an H-back on the strong side. No movement from the D-line this time. With the slot receiver already lined up on the strong side, this ultimately ends up being the exact same formation as the previous play.
That's Avery on the far side signaling an X, Gordon picks it up and moves forward. Hawthorne is also communicating and though you can't see it in the pictures, Demens does the same motion right before the snap (you can see it on the video). Ryan is playing noticeably outside this time and the alignment of the linebackers, as a group, is much better this time towards the strong side.
Snap. Look familiar? RG pulling, LG/TE scoop block on RVB and the H-back racing towards the LOS. Same play. Except Michigan is in a much better position to defend it.
If you recall from before, Demens was the outer-most linebacker on the strong side with 2 LBs on his left. This time, the linebackers are positioned in order--Hawthorne, Demens, Ryan--and Hawthorne, though pretty far from the LOS, ends up engaging with the LG pulling off his scoop block. This leaves Demens free and Ryan in prime position to make a play.
Demens engages the pulling RG while Ryan, with ample time to diagnose and react, avoids the H-back block in the open field and keeps contain on Hillman.
Ryan TFL. Loss of 2. Also, COME ON Hawthorne! You are still so far from the play. And you waited for the RG to run to you for the block.
VIDEO #2 (H/T MGoVideo...again, the music creeps me out):
LEARN-WITH-ME LESSONS
Defensive Adjustments? It's unclear if Michigan's linebackers just got luckier on the 2nd play because there was less pre-snap motion, most notably from the WR. Either way, they were much better aligned for the 2nd play and defended it appropriately. Tentatively crediting Mattison.
Communication is key. It's nice to see Floyd/Avery both recognize and communicate the formation shifts with Gordon/Kovacs. Hawthorne and Demens did the same for the 2nd play. A communicative defense!
But confusion still works. I thought SDSU could have snapped the ball a lot earlier on several plays while Michigan was still figuring out their alignment. This should improve as the season goes on but for now, the pre-snap motion is a pretty easy and effective way to confuse the hell out of our defense. Expect more of this from future opponents.
Jake Ryan is a playmaker. I suspect he'll get hammered a little bit in Brian's UFR; there are other plays where he abandons his responsibility or just looks terrible in pass coverage. Having said that, it's hard to doubt his--wait for the Hokeism--fanaticism for the football. He makes the tackle on both plays and from opposite sides! His hustle is also the reason he recovered two fumbles in this game. All and all, a pretty good 1st career start.
Demens truck. Man, Demens hits gaps hard. Big difference between him moving North-South vs. East-West (see: BWS' Jet Sweeps Defense Part 1 & 2). He's the biggest enigma on this defense, IMO.
Hawthorne/Demens switch? If anybody knows the actual football answer to what Hawthorne/Demens is supposed to do on the 1st play, I'm curious (comment). When the FB, TE and WR all switch sides and 2 of your 3 LBs don't budge, something went wrong. At least Ryan got off his EMLOS position. My guess is that Hawthorne should move to the right of Demens. Also, not to pick on Hawthorne too much, but he dies on the spot once he gets blocked.
The only thing I could think about after Michigan's 28-7 win over San Diego State was why this year is different. One explanation came to mind: Brady Hoke is not Rich Rodriguez.
I say this without any qualifiers of Rodriguez's embattled tenure, The Process, Hokeamania or whatever bias I may carry. In fact, I say this without much evidence relating to actual football. Sometimes shit happens: the lifecycle of your team's karma shifts, the pendulum swings your way, things that should matter on a football field, like turnovers, don't. While few coaches could replicate the tremendous job Hoke has done as Michigan's head coach, I also think many, if not most, could have probably benefited from simply not being Rodriguez. His luck was that bad.
What struck me most about this game was the way Michigan lost the turnover battle--4 to 3 or -1--yet still felt (and played) like we won it. The offense, and specifically Denard, gave the Aztecs every opportunity to get back this game in the 3rd quarter when Michigan started the 2nd half pick, pick, missed FG, fumble. But every potential game-changing turnover in favor of SDSU was followed by either a 3-and-out or one of their own. Credit must obviously be given to the defense effort but Ronnie Hillman doesn't fumble, much less twice in one game. Turnovers are in part attributed to luck; it's how the team responds that matters more. And Michigan responded almost every time. It took the Aztecs until late in the 3rd quarter to finally cash in on a turnover and score their first TD. They attempted 4th down 3 times to no avail. This is how a defense who allows almost 400 yards and 8 separate drives into their territory comes away with single-digit points.
Much has been made about turnovers and turnover margin this year in contrast to Rodriguez' numbers consistently in the red. Michigan walked into this game comfortably at +6. And while they may have left +5, they've still forced 13 turnovers in 4 games--6 less from their total from all of last year. I can't put my finger on exactly why but a Rodriguez Michigan team would have let this game be competitive by the 4th quarter, if not slip away altogether. Win the turnover battle, lose the turnover battle: it doesn't seem to matter for Hoke. He has his team learning from their mistakes through winning, and winning comfortably. Outside of Notre Dame, this defense has allowed on average 6.7 points per game. We may have seen 4-0 non-conference starts the last two seasons but this year feels different, even if by margin of victory against a MWC team.
GAME NOTES
Defensive line's best game. Individually, I thought it was RVB's, Roh's and Martin's best game so that's 3/4 of the line right there. Memorable plays include Roh's big hit on the first series, RVB's hustle forced fumble on Hillman and his TFL on the jet sweep. Martin was also in the backfield all day, disrupting Lindley's timing and footwork. Most telling to how dominant the line was in the trenches were several 3rd and short, 4th and short playaction calls when Hillman is your RB. I still think BWC as NT in short-yardage situations is a sore spot--he lacks a good push against the guard--but it's nice to see the group gelling as a whole. It starts with the line because...
Countess made his first contributions count.
Secondary getting more comfortable and dare I say, have depth? It's amazing how well a secondary looks when they have to cover a few less seconds because the opposing quarterback isn't facing a 3-man rush and has all day to throw. J.T. Floyd is growing into a true cover corner--most notably that pure PBU on one play. He seems to have convincingly won that competition between him and Avery, who got burned a little on the TD catch but still had pretty good coverage. Countess came in for some meaningful reps when Floyd went down briefly and looked very good. Lindley was clearly targeting the freshman corner on several routes and Countess was right there most of the time. He got burned once, a little, but made an immediate tackle short of the first down. If anything, the future is looking bright as these corners, and the secondary in general, are still so young.
Thomas Gordon is legit. There's a mancrush growing on MGoBlog for Gordon and I might be joining Brian pretty soon. Between special teams and his play at safety, he's becoming a huge asset for this team. Credit should be given to Mallory too, for turning around this secondary in such a short amount of time. Who misses Tony Gibson?
4th and 2 on OUR OWN 48. Love this call, especially when the BTN announcer says "this is a no brainer [to punt]" and then immediately praises Hoke/Borges for calling the timeout and deciding to go for it. Game theorists are rejoicing. It turns out Hoke does have a little Les Miles in him; this is the second moment where he's gone away from LloydBALL and took a calculated risk. After 2 quick scores from the offense, the call to go for it was a nice jolt of confidence for the offense, eventually rewarded with a TD right before the half.
Not open.
Oh yea, Denard. I don't know. I'm tired of trying to evaluate small samples sizes of passing attempts from under center or in the gun and compare where he's most comfortable. The truth is he's not comfortable anywhere this year, missing reads and throwing inaccurate passes regardless of scheme. This is the 3rd game he's thrown for under 100 yards and 3rd game in a row where he has a completion of under 50%. The numbers are simply awful. Yes, there are a few dropped passes here and there; Koger and the receivers can certainly do a better job. But it's the antsy footwork, staring down receivers, and making bad decisions that are the much bigger issues. I'm sure I'll revisit this again, probably every week, but for now I'm preparing myself to accept that at least 1 game, possibly a couple games, will be lost on Denard's arm.
But then there's Borges. Because he goes all, we're going to throw in the speed option this week. Borges continues to impress and prove that our coordinators are very capable of adapting to this team and its personnel. The speed option was used a couple of times (4 by my count), with both Smith and Fitz, most notably on Denard's long TD run but also on the 4th and 2 on our own 48--so some big moments. To add a wrinkle each week, whether its designed specifically for the opposing defense or not, shows some serious versatility within this offense. I've said this before but it's worth mentioning again: this offense may not be as potent or explosive as last year but the versatility factor could end up making it more effective in certain situations, particularly red zone or short-yardage situations. Defenses have to practice against multiple formations and multiple blocking schemes to keep up with Denard and our offense. Despite some of the offensive troubles we've witnessed so far, Michigan is still 13/13 in red zone efficiency, including 12 TDs and 1 FG.
Fitz and Smith. Smith was promised the start but Fitz ended up getting the game's first snap and carry. I'm OK with this. I like having Fitz as our first down back; he can grind the extra yard or 2 to make sure 2nd and 3rd down are more manageable. I also don't believe V. Smith should exclusively be used as a 3rd down back. Perhaps Fitz for 1st down and then splitting the carries the rest of the way would be a good mix.
Linebackers. Jake Ryan got his first start of his career and boy did he make it count. He's been a consistent playmaker from the OLB spot all year, though people do have to realize he's in a better position to do so playing SAM in a 4-3 under where he's assigned to blitz more often. Hawthorne continues to struggle in coverage and getting off blocks while Demens remains a little slow on play recognition. SDSU definitely watched the Eastern film because they ran the same jet sweep and Demens was late again. Cam never dressed, which was disappointing. I think his presence will give the corps a much-needed boost for Big Ten season.
I was going to wait until Big Ten season before doing my Friday preview posts but San Diego State probably proves to be a tougher opponent than some conference teams, sorry Gophers. After Notre Dame hysterics, Michigan got a mini-breather in Eastern but the season is officially in full gear now. Another reason I stayed away from non-conference previews is because of how hard it was to gauge where Michigan was a team. Awkward and inconsistent, yes, but at least we know what we're working with now. This team, these players are truly students of the game. Except the classroom is a football field and 110,000 people are staring nervously at them as they try to learn.
This game scares me. After watching some film from Ace, and reading the rest of the blogosphere's predictions, they remind me of Notre Dame a little bit: potent offense, exploitable defense. Except they run the 3-3-5, don't turn the ball over, have a senior quarterback and don't have a coach who turns into a blueberry so maybe they are nothing like Notre Dame. Anyway, the general consensus is that RB Ronnie Hillman is the real deal. If linebackers continue to struggle with play diagnosis, I expect him to rip some serious yardage if he makes it past the front 4. Senior quarterback Ryan Lindley will likely be the best passer we've seen so far. The two should lead a balanced attack in what will be a tough game for Michigan.
Smith will earn his first start of the season this week
THE OFFENSIVE MATCHUP I'M WATCHING IS... V. Smith/Fitz carries on zone reads vs. Aztec contain. With Borges relying more heavily on the shotgun, and throwing in more zone read plays of yesteryear (I counted 20 in my analysis this week but Brian counted 15; it's more likely I counted a few plays as ZR when they weren't--still a significant increase), Rocky Long should have this defense prepared to follow Denard at the mesh point. If Denard makes the right read to hand it off, it'll be up to Smith and Fitz to hurt them. This is key to balancing the run attack. A lot of teams haven't defended the zone read well when Michigan's deployed it this year but expect the Aztecs to be ready.
THE DEFENSIVE MATCHUP I'M WATCHING IS... Michigan's 3-tech (RVB/Campbell/Martin?) vs. SDSU's guard. There's been some concern regarding the play at DT. That position will be inevitably be tested again this week during some inside runs by Hillman. This is why Campbell's presence on the line is so important: him eating up 2 blockers allows Martin to shift to 3-tech, RVB to 5-tech and Roh/Black splitting time at rush DE. But Campbell isn't there yet and so Martin is stuck at NT while a few guys rotate in at 3-tech. As I mentioned before, I'm worried about Hillman once he gets past the front 4 so it'll be up to the line to slow him down and allow more time for the linebackers to react.
IF I HAD ONE WISH ON SPECIAL TEAMS IT'D BE... Hagerup got suspended for 3 games instead of 4. One more week! Also I doubt V. Smith will be returning kicks now that he's the starting back. So to whoever gets called: HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL.
Welcome back, Cam.
I AM WORRIED ABOUT... Ryan Lindley. In fact, all 4-year starting senior quarterbacks worry me, especially against this secondary. Most of the focus will be aimed at Hillman which leaves the CBs on an island. Mattison will do his thing and dial up different-look blitzes to pressure Lindley but close your eyes if they get picked up. The secondary is improving but not nearly to the level where we can rely on them to make plays. If Lindley gets into a groove, he'll carve them up and we'll be in trouble.
I AM COMFORTABLE WITH... Michigan's receivers. A disappointing game for them last week but I think they'll bounce back. Denard has spread the ball out pretty well among his 3 main targets: Hemingway, Gallon and Roundtree. Roundtree's been a little more quiet so far (his catch against ND more than makes up for it) but I also think Gallon's been targeted more. I'd like to see more 3-wide sets where Roundtree has a better opportunity to get going.
I AM EXCITED ABOUT... Cam's (and Herron's) return. Just want to see the kid play. I predicted preseason that the LB corps would be Cam, Demens and Hawthorne. Hopefully that plays out and Cam's return will be a nice boost to the group.
BOLD PREDICTION... Michigan ties or loses the turnover battle but owns the TOP. They will need to win this game on execution. If Denard doesn't break one, look for Borges to call plays that produces slow and methodical drives. These are two teams who both rather see their offenses on the field.
ALMOST FORGOT... This is a given but Michigan REALLY can't afford to start off slowly again. The Wolverines have been outscored 21-0 in the 1st quarter so far this year. They've never opened a game with the lead. It'll be interesting to see how this offense operates WITH the lead and I hope that happens this week. Look for Borges to stop experimenting early in the game this week and shotgun his way to the game's first TD.
GAME PREDICTION... Michigan comes out hot which they'll need because SDSU can score right with them. Neither team leads by more than 10 at any point in the game. I see this as a shootout--not in the sense that the combined score will be in the 90s but rather neither defense can get a good stop. FGs will be kicked; I think 2 by Michigan as Rocky Long will dream up some funky things in the red zone Denard won't be used to. At some point, he'll think "Oh I've seen this, it's the 3-3-5" and then be like "Holy crap, this is what the 3-3-5 really is". Dog fight the whole game. Oh my god, please... Michigan 34-30.
What a wonderful week of rumors and conference realignment talk. I love it when everyone runs around and panics like their internet doesn't work.
I can't believe I am typing this but I am actually glad that Jim Delany is running the Big Ten. While everyone was in panic mode, Delany was getting his Bill Martin on at the golf course.
Now I get that each school needs to look out for itself but sometimes I don't think they actually are helping themselves. I mean, look at Oklahoma. They were with the Big Twelve, then really wanted to get into California and the Pac 12 and then they didn't get in but in reality they got what they wanted by pushing all these buttons. It makes my head numb just thinking about the logic. It is Colelli-esque logic at best.
Take a look at this article by Wilbon about what all these teams are forfeiting for some more money and some so called stability. A conference built on hoops making moves based on football and tv contracts. Again, strange logic to some.
Enough of this crap, onto the games...
North Carolina at Georgia Tech Noon EST- I am stunned that UNC is still unbeaten with all of their turmoil they have been through. Meanwhile Ga Tech is doing their option thing. I can't really say I know much about either of their teams but I am going to go with a strong running game every time. Ga Tech 34-28
Notre Dame at Pitt Noon EST- There is nothing quite like a college football game at Heinz Field. It will be half full and most of the people there will be Irish fans. The only was Tommy Rees gets intimidated if he sees a poster of Woodley or James Harrison. ND 35-14.
Arkansas at Alabama 3:30 EST- I always love watching Bama going up against legit offenses. I want to see Saban match whits with Petrino. Arkansas can announce its presence in the West with a close game. I don't see it. Bama 28-13
Florida St at Clemson 3:30 EST- FSU and its defense announced it presence last week. One thing to worry about though is Manuel. Even if he is healthy, he wasn't that impressive last week. He can make plays but he overthrew plenty of passes. Clemson got a big win last week and somewhere Rich Rod is shaking at his head wondering what Denard throwing to Sammy Watkins would have looked like. Tough call. Clemson 24-21.
Oklahoma St at Texas A&M 3:30- I am so glad ESPN3 exists because of this game. I can throw up this game on the computer with all of the other games playing at 3:30. Just sit back and enjoy the chaos. This will be a shootout. A&M 45-41
Vanderbilt at South Carolina 7 EST- Talk about a surprising start. When I was picking games for this week I was stunned that I was adding this to the list. Vandy smoked Ole Miss and South Carolina has yet to have a big win. I have a soft spot in my heart my the Gamecocks because Garcia parties like a champ and Jadeveon Clowney tracks down running backs like a cheetah. South Carolina 24-20.
Missouri at Oklahoma 8 EST- This game is in Norman so the Sooners get the W. Gary Pinkle agrees with me that the expansion stuff is dumb. You are smart Gary. Oklahoma 35- 14.
LSU at WVU 8 EST- LSU and its amazing defense take their show on the road to WVU. If LSU blew up Oregon's offense, I expect the same here. You never know in Morgantown though. LSU 16-10.
USC at Arizona St 10:15 EST- I will enjoy watching this one to see the Barkley to Woods connection. While USC doesn't have the same aura it used to, I still like watching them. With USC not eligible for the title game, I have no idea who will win the South. Maybe the Pete Carroll and the Seahawks. USC 27-20.
Oregon at Arizona 10:15 EST- Listen Oregon, I had fun last year. I enjoyed the flashy offense, the flashy uniforms and watching the Supwitchugirl videos. I have to be honest though, you lost me in Dallas in week 1. LSU and its dominant D line took you apart. I still think you are the best team out West but I just can't trust you outside of your own conference. I will miss the good times we had together. Ducks 41-26
Enjoy the games. I hope you support Michigan, the best damn football team in all the land.
Yesterday, I hammered Denard's passing game a little bit based on superficial box score stats, arguing he couldn't pass under shotgun or center. The criticism came from a bird's eye view, generalizing that Notre Dame was mostly under center and Eastern was mostly in the shot--neither of which produced a completion percentage above 50%. This led me to believe you might as well run shotgun zone read because at least he's comfortable running in that system, jump ball offense be damned. In Brian @ MGoBlog's Eastern post-game, he mentioned something that caught my eye mostly because I'm among the legions of people he describes:
I keep bringing this up in the UFRs but it's worth repeating: this is a regression. Why it's a regression is unknown, but the legions of people declaring Denard a "terrible" passer are reacting to the most recent data only. Before that he was not Chad Henne but he was not awful, either. I mean, sweet hotpants in a pickle bun, I have him for 15 good throws downfield, 2 meh ones, and 2 poor ones against Wisconsin(!) last year. These are throws past the LOS, not screens. Wisconsin! I take these numbers specifically to reduce the noise you get from drops and completion percentage and the numbers say he's not Chad Henne but when you put him in last year's offense he's not that far off....
....Borges's next step is trying out the snag, all-hitch, and curl/flat routes that Denard had gotten comfortable with last year to see if his persistent inaccuracy is purely mechanical or an artifact of nerves that come with unfamiliarity with the offense....
....There is a ridiculously good offense lurking somewhere in Michigan's personnel. It's up to Borges to find it.
I wholeheartedly agree with Brian's closing sentiment: there is brilliance hidden in this offense, even under center. The flashes of it we see appear to be Borges balancing a scale with boulders instead of grains of sand. In search of this perfect balance, Borges continues to experiment with his playcalling in an effort to maximize Denard's talents without A) killing him or B) losing games on his arm for the sake of not doing Option A. Everybody knows 26 carries is unsustainable but the alternative--8 carries against Western or 16 against Notre Dame combined with jump ball touchdowns that happen to be from under center--will likely equal losses come B1G season. The offense's regression, specifically Denard's regression in the passing game, is moving faster than the defense's progression so this is the hole you have to plug first.
I hastily charted every offensive play for Eastern (by the way, I have no idea how Brian does UFR; it's an insane amount of work) and will attempt to answer his first question--whether it's mechanics or nerves--as well as comment on some overall impressions I got from Borges' progression of playcalling. I specifically focused on the increased use of ZR, its effectiveness and how those plays affected Denard's pass attempts, even the designed passes that Denard ended up scrambling. Here goes:
Denard's 18 pass attempts + 3 passing plays that ended up being scrambles/improvisation* (in order):
*1+10 | Center | playaction but Denard runs for a first down after pressure
3+5 | Shotgun | no pressure, bad pass a little behind V. Smith falls incomplete
4+5 | Shotgun | no pressure, stares at Junior the whole way and still darts it = INT
2+9 | Center | playaction, no pressure, batted ball incomplete
*3+9 | Shotgun | pressure, barely makes it out of the endzone
2+11 | Center | no pressure, playaction intended for Koger, overthrown but chould have been PI
3+11 | Shotgun | pressure, sails a pass way over Roundtree, could have been easily picked
1+10 | ZR Shotgun | zone read playaction to Koger for a good gain
2+G | ZR Shotgun | zone read playaction to Koger for TD
3+7 | Shotgun | no pressure, rolls right and grossly overthrows Junior, terrible pass
1+10 | Shotgun | no pressure, fakes run, puts extra air under ball, catchable for Fitz but dropped
1+10 | Shotgun | some pressure, throws a high bullet to Koger that he can't handle
3+5 | Shotgun | no pressure, complete to Gallon, good pass
2+5 | Center | no pressure, complete to Gallon on screen, easy pass
*3+4 | Shotgun | little pressure, intended to pass but took off running
2+4 | ZR Shotgun | under pressure, playaction roll incomplete but never sees a wide-open Junior
2+10 | Shotgun | no pressure, fake the run and pass to Dileo for TD, RR-style
2+7 | ZR Shotgun | no pressure, zone read playaction to Jackson, good throw
1+10 | Center | no pressure, underthrown into double coverage intended for Roundtree, Koger wide-open on 2nd read
3+5 | Shotgun | no pressure, complete to Gallon, excellent pass
3+1 | Center | no pressure, I-formation playaction, overthrown
PASSING POINTS
Among the 21 passing plays called, Denard was under center 6 times. You'll notice the calls from under center came in the beginning and at the end of the game--more on this later. Of the 6 called plays, 5 of them ended up being pass attempts and 1 a scramble after a screen wasn't there and he took off. Here's where it gets dicey: of the 5 pass attempts from center, he went 1/5: batted ball, overthrown, completed screen, underthrown into double coverage, overthrown. That's a fairly bad stat line operating from under center.
His shotgun numbers, though improved, aren't significantly better: 15 times from the gun, 2 scrambles and 6/13, 2 TDs, INT. Among his 13 pass attempts in shot, 4 came from ZR plays. He went 3/4 in ZR: Koger for 12 yards, Koger for 9 yards (TD), under pressure incomplete pass (play #16) with a wide-open Junior, Jackson for 12 yards. However, his lone pick, like plays #16 and #19 above, was a result of staring down 1 receiver for over 3 seconds and never going through his reads. Even in ZR, he'll make the first read not to hand off the ball but doesn't cycle through his pass reads. So while Denard's inaccuracy from the shot rarely came from the ZR, he's shown inconsistency in the Pro-Form gun too, inside or outside of the pocket.
So the regression is definitely there, regardless of scheme. Asking Denard to go through passing reads was a challenge for Rodriguez and a nightmare for Hoke/Borges. He simply does not read defenses, he reacts to them, which is why he takes off so willingly under pressure. This is not such a bad thing since him improvising freaks out the defense and often ends up being a first down. But in terms of actually learning Borges' offense, Denard is almost rebelling. His numbers clearly show high comfort in shot and even higher comfort in ZR. When he's asked to go under center for a playaction rollout, his first read is a passing read and when it's not there, which is more often than his ZR passes, he either forces it in or bugs out.
16 started from under center (25%), 49 from shotgun (75%)
Among shotgun snaps, zone read was called 20 times (40.8%)
ZONE READ BREAKDOWN
In the first 3 possessions--where Michigan went INT, 3-and-out, 3-and-out--the zone read was used once; 1 in 13 plays (7.7%). The last 6 possessions, 5 of which ended up in scoring drives including 4 TDs, the ZR was used 19 times; 19 in 52 plays (36.5%)
In 20/65 ZR plays (30.8%), its production accounted for 209 of 471 yards of total offense (44.4%). Interestingly, in 6 of Fitz's 11 carries (54.5%), it accounted for 38 of his 48 rushing yards (79.1%); he seems to be the back of choice in zone reads. Shaw got 1 carry and V. Smith got 4 of 9 (44.4%) that produced 50 of his 118 rushing yards (42.3%)--pretty comparable. Fitz was more effective in the ZR in this small sample size.
Then there's Denard. Most would agree Denard can run without passing well but he cannot pass without running well. And he most definitely runs better under ZR. On the ground, 5 of his 26 carries (19.2%) from the ZR gained 85 of his 198 rushing yards (42.9%). As mentioned before, in the air, he went 3/4 off of the ZR playaction for 33 yards and a TD to Koger (this is excluding his fake run TD pass to Dileo which is a designed pass the whole way, though very RR-esque). His lone incompletion was to a double-covered Roundtree in the endzone when Junior was wide-open so that's lack of cycling through 2nd and 3rd options.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS
Denard was under center 6 times within the first 13 plays of the 3 opening drives that went INT, punt, punt. Borges then called 7 consecutive plays from shotgun to lead Michigan to their 1st TD drive, including 2 key ZR passes to Koger--the last one being a TD.
After Michigan stalled on their 5th possession, a 3-and-out punt, that ended with Denard badly overthrowing a wide-open Hemingway, Michigan was only up 7-3 towards the end of the 2nd quarter. Even with time winding down, Borges still called 6 consecutive running plays to secure the 2nd TD, including 5 from shotgun.
If I were to graph the frequency of Denard under center, it would look like a U--meaning high usage towards the beginning and end of the game. In other words, experimenting to start and when the game was already won. The real work was Denard in the shotgun. This is a big reason why Denard was never pulled on the final possession: after only 38 offensive plays in Western and ND not resembling a real football game, Denard is still VERY limited in game experience under center. He needs the work.
FWIW, I counted 16 designed runs for Denard: QB isos, QB draws, power QB leads with HB blockers. That means 10 other carries came from ZR or improvisation. Borges called Denard's number 4 times on a 7 play drive for Michigan's 1st TD and 3 times in a 6-play drive for Michigan's 2nd. At the end of the day, Denard running is still Borges' safety blanket and he has no trouble riding his legs for TDs, if need be. Borges even called his number a few times in Michigan's final 2 drives, when the game was well in hand, so spare me the safety argument for now. He went all RichRod after he saw how fun and easy it is to just use Denard.
FINAL IMPRESSIONS
Let's first get the formation misconception out of the way: Borges' West Coast-style Pro-Form offense does not equal I-formations under center every down;shotgun is very much a part of his regular playbook. With Denard as the signal caller and clearly more comfortable operating last year's zone read, which runs exclusively from the gun, you are still going to see him heavily in the shot. This makes sense as Borges mixes in both schemes. Here's the stat to prove this: Denard was in the gun 64% and 75%--relatively close, both well above 50%--against ND and Eastern. But Borges ran ZR 3 times as opposed to 20 times respectively. Lots of shotgun in both games, 2 very different gameplans.
In response to Brian's mechanics vs. nerves question, I think it's both because the nerves amplify his lack of mechanics. While Denard proved last year he can throw some dimes and put up near Hennebot numbers, his passing game, unlike his ability to run, has a ceiling. That ceiling is limited by his mechanics--the way he still struggles with footwork, the way he overthrows single coverage, the way he underthrows double coverage. Yes, Denard improved vastly from Year 1 to Year 2 but his Year 1 baseline was completing half his passes to the other team. This feels like Year 1.5--a small step backwards. In terms of the deep ball, I still believe that's been inconsistent from Day 1, even in decent passing performances of the past.
The goal then should be to figure out how to establish a comfortable rhythm to make the necessary 15+ yard throw when the opportunity presents itself. As Brian noted before, last year's designed rhythm routes were a mix of hitches, snags, flats and bubble screens. This year, Borges wants to do the same but via playaction screens to V. Smith or TE routes. This is where I think the nerves come into play. The grossly overthrown screen to V. Smith against ND that was picked, the fake run pass to Fitz that also had a lot of air under it, the high bullet he threw at Koger--these are all easy throws that we've seen Denard make in the past which suggest they are product of an unfamiliar set and system.
3 games in and SDSU looming (they are no blowover) before the start of the B1G season, Borges finds himself in a tough spot. Time has run out. At some point he has to pick a direction. Does he continue nurturing Denard with easier playcalls under center and try to get him acclimated or does he go with what works right now (ZR) and ride it as long as he can? The most recent evidence from Eastern suggests he is ready to say eff it. The higher frequency of calls under center in the 1st and 4th quarter matches the way Michigan struggled at the start and recorded their first non-TD red zone drive at the end (Michigan is currently 10/10 in red zone efficiency with 9 TDs and 1 FG). With the defense still adjusting, we likely can't afford a bad offensive quarter against much better competition in the name of experimentation and at the expense of reducing our chances to win.
The answer to how Borges should handle Denard moving forward is a matter of preference. For me, I rather have Denard NOT become a jack of all trades and a master of none. Borges has already lived up to his words on being flexible with his playbook, open to new ideas but how far can/will he take it? He has added a few wrinkles from Rodriguez's playbook but what if it requires the full playbook--the hitches, the snags, the bubble screens--to get Denard fully involved with a competent passing game? To operate from the ZR as the base offense may be radical for this coaching staff, but it's right up the players' alley. Perhaps Borges' added wrinkles to this offense should come from his playbook instead of Rodriguez's.
Coming off 114,000+ simultaneously dropping E last weekend, Eastern Michigan was built up to come down from the high. The odd natures of Western and Notre Dame--weather-shortened game and absolute hysteria--made the first two games of the season seem not real. You got the sense what you were watching was neither indicative of who this team really is nor predictive of how this team will perform in the future. Eastern, though more on the level of Baby Seal U, was supposed to bring back some normalcy: return to the base offense, more vanilla defense, getting healthy, etc. Not so much. Michigan gained 32 yards in the 1st quarter, including an interception and back-to-back 3-and-out's. Then as if a switch was flipped, Thomas Gordon's interception steered the team back on course. "On course", however, turned out to be Denard carrying the ball 26 times and the zone read, used only 3 times against ND, heavily relied on circa... 2008? This is our new normalcy. Denard is doing his best Holden Caulfield.
Shortest leap celebration ever.
From afar, there's nothing particularly noteworthy from the final score yet the box score has Rodriguez's footprint all over it: Denard threw for under 100 yards and ran for nearly 200. That disconnect between final score and box score embodies this year's awkward transition: this strange hybrid between Hoke's consistency with Rodriguez's explosiveness, Mattison's maximization of talent with GERG's general incompetence, freaking out at the end of the 1st quarter with yawning at the end of the 4th. We are a mixed-race child--the one that looks like an alien instead of hot and exotic. Michigan may have opened with another slow start but deep down inside, up 14-3 at the half, you felt like the game would be at hand instead of upset alert. It resembled any one of Carr's non-conference games and none of Rodriguez's. Somehow this team brings nervousness and comfort at the same time. And I suspect this feeling won't go away for the rest of the season. We are about to play 12 season-openers because each week I learn everything and nothing from this team.
Bold first sentences and verbose comments:
This was the first time Michigan held a team to a FG or less since... you guessed it: 2007 Notre Dame (38-0). Even Infant Seal U, Delaware State, managed 6 on Rodriguez. While Michigan had a slow start, it's more important that they finish strong--something noticeably absent the last 3 years because we were constantly behind. Is it just sluggish starts or good adjustments? Probably a little bit of both. But it's also Eastern so 45 minutes of football won't win many games come B1G season.
Not exactly sound fundamentals.
Denard's passing struggles. 7/18, 95 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. That's a completion percentage of 46%. Combine that with Notre Dame's numbers and it gets lowered to 43% with 4 picks. There's some dropped balls sprinkled in there but there's also wide-open receivers on 2nd or 3rd reads completely ignored. But here's the thing: Denard was in shot most of Western and under center most of Notre Dame so the answer is far from where he takes the snap. When you roll out to the right without a defender within 10 yards of you, plant your feet and overthrow Junior by 5-8 yards when he has 2 steps on his man, it makes no difference whether you got to that position from the I-Form or Shotgun. It's the arm, not the scheme.
But Denard can still run! Yes, he can. 26 carries for 198 yards and 1 TD, averaging 7.6 YPC. And this is why I support using the zone read as the base offense with Pro-Form plays as wrinkles, not the other way around. Not surprisingly, this continues to be the big debate among Michigan fans: short-term vs. long-term success. Now granted, 3 2.75 games is a small sample size and way too early to judge, I agree, but it is indisputable which system Denard is more comfortable in. The more relevant question is whether you feel Denard will EVER be comfortable in the Pro-Form and whether the risk is worth the reward in his remaining 1.5 years to get him there? For now, my answer to both is no.
Here's why: We've seen Denard just do about everything on a football field. But the dude simply can't pass consistently and especially not deep. There's no evidence for me to believe that he will develop that part of his game this year--maybe next year after a ton of off-season work. People claim he just needs to calm his feet and have better footwork, but does his cancer-curing smile and screams of "AHHHHH" suggest he ever will? I'm being serious. At some point, we have to accept Denard for who he is instead of dreaming who he can become in a system we're, not he's, more comfortable with. Denard was an improved passer under Rodriguez's system but still not tremendous. It was the mere thought of him taking off for the end zone that produced open receivers by 15 yards; safeties completely abandoning their coverage responsibility to crash a B gap when the ball is already headed towards Roundtree's seam route. The quick hitches, slants and flats--these were rhythm passes set up to make sure even Denard wouldn't overthrow something so wide open. The "wrinkles" that Borges has been using--the shotgun playaction completion to Koger, the fake run pass to Dileo, the fake run pass to Toussaint--ended up being 2 TDs and an incompletion that should have been 20 yards. I would argue that running these type of plays as the base offense and sprinkling in Pro-Form--Fitz at fullback depth, the I-Form playaction to Robot McColgan or the misdirection plays for V. Smith--would make both styles more effective. If Denard has trouble passing in either system, you might as well use the system he runs most comfortably in.
OK, Now I'm tired. That should have been a separate post.
The backs. V. Smith had a great game--9 carries for 118 yards--and looks to be moving away from the 3rd down back, specialist role and more towards the 2 in Michigan's 1-2 punch. Fitz staying healthy is the key to this running game; we're even seeing him used as a fullback over Hopkins and sometimes McColgan. With V. Smith's versatility, I'd be happy with that combination moving forward. On a side note, with Rawls making an appearance (and red-shirt burned), it seems Hopkins and Cox will be buried in the depth chart for the rest of the season. Shaw, like Fitz, needs to stay healthy but he has an upward climb ahead of him if he wants to break into the rotation again.
Welcome to the 2011 season, Craig Roh. After 2 games without recording a single tackle, Roh got his first tackle in a form of a TFL sack. Having said that, I still didn't see much production coming out of his position with Black earning more time during rotations. I said last week, way prematurely, that Black would start over Roh for the rest of the year--not even close to being true. But I do believe Roh will take a diminished role for the rest of the year. Hopefully, the sack is a nice boost of confidence for him to get him going for B1G season.
Will Campbell watch. Even if against Eastern's offensive line, Will Campbell looked serviceable coming in for Martin. He had a few plays where he ate up 2 blockers to free up a LB, like Hawthorne, to come in for a tackle close to the LOS. He even blew back defenders a couple of yards on some plays. Campbell may lack the technique but the talent is definitely there. His presence helps out the D-line rotation tremendously. Somebody just needs to get him jacked up on Mountain Dew before each game and we're good.
Gordon pick was sweet but somewhat lucky. Eastern came out overloading quads on the far side while Michigan was still setting up the defense. It was 4 on 3 at the snap with Kovacs running to recover. The entire defense looked lost except for Gordon, which thank god, because he immediately recognized the 1 receiver with zero interest in blocking, picked him up and made an athletic pick.
Special teams moving towards the mean. A ball went through the uprights for 3 points. Michigan is officially 100% on FGs for the year. This is amazing. We still can't cover or return kicks for the life of us but at least we are HOLDING ON TO THE DAMN BALL and not giving up anything past the 50 (ugh what a baseline). Also, is Jeremy Gallon seriously becoming a threat on punt returns? Ricardo Miller doesn't think so.
