Why This Year Is Different

The only thing I could think about after Michigan's 28-7 win over San Diego State was why this year is different. One explanation came to mind: Brady Hoke is not Rich Rodriguez.

I say this without any qualifiers of Rodriguez's embattled tenure, The Process, Hokeamania or whatever bias I may carry. In fact, I say this without much evidence relating to actual football. Sometimes shit happens: the lifecycle of your team's karma shifts, the pendulum swings your way, things that should matter on a football field, like turnovers, don't. While few coaches could replicate the tremendous job Hoke has done as Michigan's head coach, I also think many, if not most, could have probably benefited from simply not being Rodriguez. His luck was that bad.

What struck me most about this game was the way Michigan lost the turnover battle--4 to 3 or -1--yet still felt (and played) like we won it. The offense, and specifically Denard, gave the Aztecs every opportunity to get back this game in the 3rd quarter when Michigan started the 2nd half pick, pick, missed FG, fumble. But every potential game-changing turnover in favor of SDSU was followed by either a 3-and-out or one of their own. Credit must obviously be given to the defense effort but Ronnie Hillman doesn't fumble, much less twice in one game. Turnovers are in part attributed to luck; it's how the team responds that matters more. And Michigan responded almost every time. It took the Aztecs until late in the 3rd quarter to finally cash in on a turnover and score their first TD. They attempted 4th down 3 times to no avail. This is how a defense who allows almost 400 yards and 8 separate drives into their territory comes away with single-digit points.

Much has been made about turnovers and turnover margin this year in contrast to Rodriguez' numbers consistently in the red. Michigan walked into this game comfortably at +6. And while they may have left +5, they've still forced 13 turnovers in 4 games--6 less from their total from all of last year. I can't put my finger on exactly why but a Rodriguez Michigan team would have let this game be competitive by the 4th quarter, if not slip away altogether. Win the turnover battle, lose the turnover battle: it doesn't seem to matter for Hoke. He has his team learning from their mistakes through winning, and winning comfortably. Outside of Notre Dame, this defense has allowed on average 6.7 points per game. We may have seen 4-0 non-conference starts the last two seasons but this year feels different, even if by margin of victory against a MWC team.

GAME NOTES

Defensive line's best game. Individually, I thought it was RVB's, Roh's and Martin's best game so that's 3/4 of the line right there. Memorable plays include Roh's big hit on the first series, RVB's hustle forced fumble on Hillman and his TFL on the jet sweep. Martin was also in the backfield all day, disrupting Lindley's timing and footwork. Most telling to how dominant the line was in the trenches were several 3rd and short, 4th and short playaction calls when Hillman is your RB. I still think BWC as NT in short-yardage situations is a sore spot--he lacks a good push against the guard--but it's nice to see the group gelling as a whole. It starts with the line because...

Countess made his first contributions count.

Secondary getting more comfortable and dare I say, have depth? It's amazing how well a secondary looks when they have to cover a few less seconds because the opposing quarterback isn't facing a 3-man rush and has all day to throw. J.T. Floyd is growing into a true cover corner--most notably that pure PBU on one play. He seems to have convincingly won that competition between him and Avery, who got burned a little on the TD catch but still had pretty good coverage. Countess came in for some meaningful reps when Floyd went down briefly and looked very good. Lindley was clearly targeting the freshman corner on several routes and Countess was right there most of the time. He got burned once, a little, but made an immediate tackle short of the first down. If anything, the future is looking bright as these corners, and the secondary in general, are still so young.

Thomas Gordon is legit. There's a mancrush growing on MGoBlog for Gordon and I might be joining Brian pretty soon. Between special teams and his play at safety, he's becoming a huge asset for this team. Credit should be given to Mallory too, for turning around this secondary in such a short amount of time. Who misses Tony Gibson?

4th and 2 on OUR OWN 48. Love this call, especially when the BTN announcer says "this is a no brainer [to punt]" and then immediately praises Hoke/Borges for calling the timeout and deciding to go for it. Game theorists are rejoicing. It turns out Hoke does have a little Les Miles in him; this is the second moment where he's gone away from LloydBALL and took a calculated risk. After 2 quick scores from the offense, the call to go for it was a nice jolt of confidence for the offense, eventually rewarded with a TD right before the half.

Not open.

Oh yea, Denard. I don't know. I'm tired of trying to evaluate small samples sizes of passing attempts from under center or in the gun and compare where he's most comfortable. The truth is he's not comfortable anywhere this year, missing reads and throwing inaccurate passes regardless of scheme. This is the 3rd game he's thrown for under 100 yards and 3rd game in a row where he has a completion of under 50%. The numbers are simply awful. Yes, there are a few dropped passes here and there; Koger and the receivers can certainly do a better job. But it's the antsy footwork, staring down receivers, and making bad decisions that are the much bigger issues. I'm sure I'll revisit this again, probably every week, but for now I'm preparing myself to accept that at least 1 game, possibly a couple games, will be lost on Denard's arm.

But then there's Borges. Because he goes all, we're going to throw in the speed option this week. Borges continues to impress and prove that our coordinators are very capable of adapting to this team and its personnel. The speed option was used a couple of times (4 by my count), with both Smith and Fitz, most notably on Denard's long TD run but also on the 4th and 2 on our own 48--so some big moments. To add a wrinkle each week, whether its designed specifically for the opposing defense or not, shows some serious versatility within this offense. I've said this before but it's worth mentioning again: this offense may not be as potent or explosive as last year but the versatility factor could end up making it more effective in certain situations, particularly red zone or short-yardage situations. Defenses have to practice against multiple formations and multiple blocking schemes to keep up with Denard and our offense. Despite some of the offensive troubles we've witnessed so far, Michigan is still 13/13 in red zone efficiency, including 12 TDs and 1 FG.

Fitz and Smith. Smith was promised the start but Fitz ended up getting the game's first snap and carry. I'm OK with this. I like having Fitz as our first down back; he can grind the extra yard or 2 to make sure 2nd and 3rd down are more manageable. I also don't believe V. Smith should exclusively be used as a 3rd down back. Perhaps Fitz for 1st down and then splitting the carries the rest of the way would be a good mix.

Linebackers. Jake Ryan got his first start of his career and boy did he make it count. He's been a consistent playmaker from the OLB spot all year, though people do have to realize he's in a better position to do so playing SAM in a 4-3 under where he's assigned to blitz more often. Hawthorne continues to struggle in coverage and getting off blocks while Demens remains a little slow on play recognition. SDSU definitely watched the Eastern film because they ran the same jet sweep and Demens was late again. Cam never dressed, which was disappointing. I think his presence will give the corps a much-needed boost for Big Ten season.

Up Next: Minnesota