The Source of Denard's Regression: SDSU

Through the encouragement of Brian @ MGoBlog, I decided to update my analysis regarding Denard's apparent regression in his passing game for SDSU, much like what I did with Eastern. I got the feeling Brian spotted something last week's post might highlight this week. Lo and behold, some interesting items surfaced. I also decided to skip the zone read stuff and just focus on the passing. But a quick note on ZR: after I watched MGoVideo's Every Snap, there was an unmistakable high usage of ZR again; it's become an integral part of this offense. Also, 21 carries by Denard--perfectly balanced between Notre Dame's 16 and Eastern's 26--looks like the sweet spot Borges wants. Whether it's by luck or design--probably a little bit of both--Denard made it through non-con without sitting out a play via injury. You can't say that for 2009 or 2010.

In the air, though, it's still pretty ugly. The box score is once again not kind to Denard: 8/17, 93 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs. Ironically, the game in which we won by the closest margin, Notre Dame, was the one he put up career passing numbers in yards (338) and TDs (4). The other 3 opponents held him, or more accurately he held himself, to under 100 (!) yards passing and 50% completion. Not to mention Denard already has 6 picks through 4 games, the most of any other Big Ten quarterback. No matter how you spin it, the numbers look bad. 

I counted 20 called passing plays (excluding possible audibles, more on this later). 17 were pass attempts, 2 were Denard pulling down the ball to run, and 1 was pass interference that would have been incomplete anyway. Here's the breakdown including score changes so you get a better feel of the game situation when Borges makes these calls:

Not a good sign to start.

[Not to go down the dark path of Brian's UFR but I created a simple (subjective) metric for pocket pressure between 0-3 with 0 being Hemingway jumpball TD against ND time and 3 being hit while throwing. 1 is more of internalized pressure: hand in the face, defender charging. 2 is an effective hurry where Denard is within pushing/hitting distance. Lastly, the * indicates a called passing play not counted in the box score]

SCORE: TIED 0-0
*3+5 | shot | drops back, sees giant hole, runs for 19 yards and first down, P0

1+10 | center | PA, rolls right, bad feet, jump throws, overthrows Odoms, P0 (incomplete)

SCORE: MICHIGAN 7-0
1+10 | shot | 1 step back, immediate throw to well-covered Roundtree, P0 (incomplete)

2+10 | center | PA, sets feet, tunnel throwback screen to Gallon, P1 (complete)

SCORE: MICHIGAN 14-0
1+10 | shot | fakes run, steps back, sets feet, good throw to Roundtree, P0 (complete)
*2+4 | shot | PA, jumpy feet, P2, overthrows Roundtree but PI called, still bad throw

2+6 | center | PA, rolls right, looks at covered receivers, P1, sets feet, checks down to V. Smith (complete)

1+20 | shot | steps back, P0, sets feet, quick pass to Roundtree (complete)
2+15 | shot | PA, sets feet, P1, hits Koger on target but dropped (incomplete)
*3+15 | shot | few steps back, P2, steps into pocket, takes off, runs 40 yards for gain of 10
2+11 | shot | PA, terrible footwork, P2, awkward throw to covered Smith (incomplete)
3+11 | shot | rolls right, P2, sets feet, good pass to Hemingway (complete)
SCORE: MICHIGAN 21-0
2+13 | shot | rolls left, stares down receiver, P1, sets feet, accurate pass but picked off (incomplete, INT)
2+6 | shot | PA, rolls right, barely sets feet, P2, inaccurate pass to Koger (incomplete)
3+6 | shot | drops back, steps into pocket, P1, throws while running forward into tight coverage on Koger (incomplete, INT)
3+7 | shot | steps back, P1, sets feet, nice screen pass to Smith (complete)
2+10 | shot | PA, sets feet, P1, complete to Dileo in stride, YAC (complete)
SCORE: MICHIGAN 21-7

2+12 | center | PA, rolls right, sets feet, P2, overthrows a deep ball intended for Roundtree (incomplete)

3+12 | shot | drops back, steps into pocket, fake runs, pulls up and throws on run, P2, bad feet, bad throw but caught by Smith (complete)
3+9 | shot | drops back, happy feet, P0, overthrows badly (incomplete)

PASSING POINTS

Among the 20 passing plays called, 4 had Denard under center--a number that seems to be shrinking each week. He was 2/4 from there with both his completions being short but effective passes: a tunnel throwback screen to Gallon and a checkdown to Smith (more on this later). His 2 incompletions, however, were grossly overthrown. Most intriguing, every pass play from under center had playaction attached. It's clear Borges only wants Denard throwing through the threat of a run, whether it be under center or in the gun.

In shotgun, Denard still struggles: 6/13 and 2 INTs. He had 16 plays called from there and ran twice, both reasonable decisions, while the other unrecorded attempt would have been incomplete with or without the PI. Borges mixed in playactions and rollouts with little success of building any sort of rhythm; Denard never completes more than 2 passes in a row the entire game. And though he wasn't given many opportunities to throw picks from under center (what a terrible way to start a sentence), both his interceptions did come from the shot.

I'd be remiss not to point out how small these samples sizes can get when you break them down. Denard passes pretty infrequently as is. You can't really take 4 shotgun playaction roll passes and say with certainty that he's totally comfortable or completely uncomfortable operating from there. Having said that, there are some pretty good observations you can make. Here are mine:

Footwork. This is by far the biggest thing that jumps out at me, the most predictive of Denard's passing success. If you look only at his completions, 7/8 had good footwork where he plants and throws accurately. If you look at the 10 "sets feet" plays above, he had 7 completions, 1 that should have been completed to Koger (good throw), 1 pick which was an accurate pass just awful decision/receiver lock and 1 overthrown deep ball. In response to Brian's mechanics vs. nerves, it starts with the mechanics. Denard's footwork is inconsistent in both sets.

Hard to tell but both Denard's feet are in the air for this overthrown ball to Odoms.

The (lack of a) deep ball. In my estimation, it just isn't there. People, myself included, need to let this go. I would guess that even his "long" completions of the past probably came from YAC. I'd be curious to see Denard's completion % of any pass where the football is in the air for over 20 yards. Even with his feet set, Denard just doesn't have the touch. And I suspect he won't magically get it in the next 2 months. Borges will still take his shots downfield but if he wants to stretch the field next year, Denard will have to work on this relentlessly during the offseason. 

The 2 picks. Going back to Denard's footwork, it shouldn't surprise anybody that his feet get worse as the play gets extended, either due to his primary read being covered or pressure coming his way. Once the play breaks down so does his footwork. The 2 picks are interesting to me because they come from 2 extremes I imagine must be frustrating for Borges to correct. On one hand, if you coach Denard to just go with his primary read, not allowing the time for his feet to wander sort of speak, he lasers in on receivers and is prone to corners/safeties reading his eyes and breaking off their assignments. On the other hand, if you coach him to go through his reads or step up in the pocket, his feet produce bad throws mixed with bad decisions.

Borges' playcall progression. I mentioned last week that if you were to graph Borges' playcalling, it would look like a U with higher frequency from under center towards the beginning and end of the game. With only 4 attempts under center, I can't make the same conclusion. However, it is interesting to note that he called only 4 pass plays while Michigan had a lead of 7 or less and 16 while he had a lead of 14 or more. SDSU is obviously not Eastern and with a strong emphasis on a fast start during the week, it is evident Borges understands that does not include Denard throwing, under center or in the gun. Starting fast is running the ball and running the ball a lot.

Unfavorable passing situations. In Denard's defense, he's also being asked to throw in some unfavorable passing situations. 8/20 called passing plays were on downs over 11 yards, so taking out the 1st-and-10s. None of his 7 3rd down calls were under 5 yards. That sucks for a quarterback comfortable passing the mall, much less for Denard who isn't totally polished and trying to balance two systems.

Audibles. I counted 2 audibles both while Denard was under center and felt a blitz coming. The 1st one ended up being a broken play via miscommunication as Denard tried to hand off the ball in 1 direction and Smith ran in the other, no gain. The 2nd play was also checked into a run for no gain. If I were to guess, both plays were originally called passing plays--a simple check from pass to run. I know Denard isn't quite at Advanced Audibles 495 but it looked pretty obvious. It also reveals how uncomfortable he is with pressure under center; he immediately checks to a run. In the future, I'd like to see him audible (taught by Borges) out from under center and into the gun. Baby steps, I guess.

Denard's best play. I cringe when Denard stares down his receivers or seems to have already made his mind up of where he's going with the football before the snap. But on one play, under center, he seems to put it all together. It's the 7th play where he looks right at covered receivers then calmly looks left, sets his feet, and checks down with an accurate throw to Smith for a first down (before he fumbles). Such a simple play and probably standard for most quarterbacks but believe me, it's a huge step forward for Denard. Video:



Passing series dedicated to RichRod. In the middle of the game, when Denard starts a series 1st-and-20, Borges briefly puts on his Rodriguez mask. Whether or not that's indicative of what Borges believes is the best chance to pick up 20 yards in 3 downs, I'm not sure. But he puts Denard in shot all 3 times: a 5-yard hitch route by Roundtree, a great playaction to Koger that should have been 15+ yards (ARGH) and then Denard scrambling on 3rd and 15 which he almost gets a first down himself. I really wish Koger caught that pass because previous to this series, Denard completes what I think is his best passing play of the game. That's a momentum-killing drop that messes with Denard's confidence and nerves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Well if I had the answer, I wouldn't be here speculating. This is what Borges gets paid to do and frankly I do not envy his position. While Borges seems to have fully embraced Rodriguez's ground game, he's more reluctant incorporating his passing philosophy. The numbers trending away from center and towards the gun indicate he's getting there, just slower. The playactions from under center, the rollouts, the quick-decision routes--these are all designed to play towards Denard's strengths, which is what a good coordinator does.

The problem is that Denard hasn't shown many strengths in his passing game outside of hitting wide-open receivers because the defense freaks out at the thought of him running. And at this point of the season, it becomes more figuring out how to manage him rather than teach him. It's unlikely he's going to develop a deep ball by season's end and I don't see his footwork massively improving week-to-week. To coach him is to choose the lesser of two evils: putting him in positions where his footwork matters less versus more uncomfortable scenarios like stepping into a pocket where he tends to develop happy feet. Denard is improving after the intial drop off this year, yes, but not improving fast enough. The reason still very unclear.

As much as I want to hammer him being under center sometimes, there are some positives. That check down pass to Smith is a glimmer of hope that Denard is capable of doing the things Borges will ask of him in the long-term. And by long-term, I mean next year. The question all along has been whether we should ask Denard to adapt to Borges or Borges to adapt to Denard. And though there's no perfect answer, Denard has shown he can probably go 20% of the way Borges if goes the other 80%. And those percentages reflect the playcalling right now. I think you'll see a very similar passing strategy deployed for the rest of Big Ten season.

Rhythm is important. But establishing that rhythm has been difficult for one reason or another. I personally think its the unfamiliarity of the routes Borges insists on running; Denard looks much more poised when he's in shot, fakes the handoff, takes 1 step back and fires the seam. But the flip side of establishing a rhythm is it feels like a zero-sum game. We ask Borges to develop a rhythm for Denard but it's much easier said than done with so few attempts per game? We ask Borges to put Denard in better passing downs but you tell me whether you rather have Denard run or pass on 3rd-and-2 or 2nd-and-5. That Denard runs so successfully hurts his ability to establish a rhythm for a pass. This is why Borges keeps him in at the end of Eastern. This is why Borges calls an under center, PA deep late in an out-of-reach game. These are the meaningful game reps Denard doesn't get to practice/execute when the game still hasn't been won.

If it were up to me, and thank god it's not, I'd look long and hard at why those under center, PA, screen passes or check downs work and give that Rodriguez series another shot. I'd abandoned the deep ball unless the situation absolutely necessitates that throw. I'd avoid stepping into pockets, and especially coach Denard never to throw once the play breaks down while he's in the pocket--just run. And outside the pocket, I'd have him rolling right, not left, setting his feet, and practice reading simple 2-man routes. I look at Denard this year as I looked at the defense last year: he doesn't need to be outstanding, just good enough where his arm doesn't cost the game. As the analogy goes, Rodriguez : Defense :: Borges : Denard's arm. I could care less if Denard throws 100-150 yards/game the rest of the season. But if he does it without the picks and increases his completion percentage slightly with some help from the receivers, I'll take it. That's all we need from Denard this year to probably exceed expectations. The improved defense and running game, which he is an overwhelmingly large part of, should take care of the rest.