Preview: San Diego State

I was going to wait until Big Ten season before doing my Friday preview posts but San Diego State probably proves to be a tougher opponent than some conference teams, sorry Gophers. After Notre Dame hysterics, Michigan got a mini-breather in Eastern but the season is officially in full gear now. Another reason I stayed away from non-conference previews is because of how hard it was to gauge where Michigan was a team. Awkward and inconsistent, yes, but at least we know what we're working with now. This team, these players are truly students of the game. Except the classroom is a football field and 110,000 people are staring nervously at them as they try to learn.

This game scares me. After watching some film from Ace, and reading the rest of the blogosphere's predictions, they remind me of Notre Dame a little bit: potent offense, exploitable defense. Except they run the 3-3-5, don't turn the ball over, have a senior quarterback and don't have a coach who turns into a blueberry so maybe they are nothing like Notre Dame. Anyway, the general consensus is that RB Ronnie Hillman is the real deal. If linebackers continue to struggle with play diagnosis, I expect him to rip some serious yardage if he makes it past the front 4. Senior quarterback Ryan Lindley will likely be the best passer we've seen so far. The two should lead a balanced attack in what will be a tough game for Michigan.

Smith will earn his first start of the season this week

THE OFFENSIVE MATCHUP I'M WATCHING IS... V. Smith/Fitz carries on zone reads vs. Aztec contain. With Borges relying more heavily on the shotgun, and throwing in more zone read plays of yesteryear (I counted 20 in my analysis this week but Brian counted 15; it's more likely I counted a few plays as ZR when they weren't--still a significant increase), Rocky Long should have this defense prepared to follow Denard at the mesh point. If Denard makes the right read to hand it off, it'll be up to Smith and Fitz to hurt them. This is key to balancing the run attack. A lot of teams haven't defended the zone read well when Michigan's deployed it this year but expect the Aztecs to be ready.

THE DEFENSIVE MATCHUP I'M WATCHING IS... Michigan's 3-tech (RVB/Campbell/Martin?) vs. SDSU's guard. There's been some concern regarding the play at DT. That position will be inevitably be tested again this week during some inside runs by Hillman. This is why Campbell's presence on the line is so important: him eating up 2 blockers allows Martin to shift to 3-tech, RVB to 5-tech and Roh/Black splitting time at rush DE. But Campbell isn't there yet and so Martin is stuck at NT while a few guys rotate in at 3-tech. As I mentioned before, I'm worried about Hillman once he gets past the front 4 so it'll be up to the line to slow him down and allow more time for the linebackers to react.

IF I HAD ONE WISH ON SPECIAL TEAMS IT'D BE... Hagerup got suspended for 3 games instead of 4. One more week! Also I doubt V. Smith will be returning kicks now that he's the starting back. So to whoever gets called: HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL.

Welcome back, Cam.

I AM WORRIED ABOUT... Ryan Lindley. In fact, all 4-year starting senior quarterbacks worry me, especially against this secondary. Most of the focus will be aimed at Hillman which leaves the CBs on an island. Mattison will do his thing and dial up different-look blitzes to pressure Lindley but close your eyes if they get picked up. The secondary is improving but not nearly to the level where we can rely on them to make plays. If Lindley gets into a groove, he'll carve them up and we'll be in trouble.

I AM COMFORTABLE WITH... Michigan's receivers. A disappointing game for them last week but I think they'll bounce back. Denard has spread the ball out pretty well among his 3 main targets: Hemingway, Gallon and Roundtree. Roundtree's been a little more quiet so far (his catch against ND more than makes up for it) but I also think Gallon's been targeted more. I'd like to see more 3-wide sets where Roundtree has a better opportunity to get going.

I AM EXCITED ABOUT... Cam's (and Herron's) return. Just want to see the kid play. I predicted preseason that the LB corps would be Cam, Demens and Hawthorne. Hopefully that plays out and Cam's return will be a nice boost to the group.

BOLD PREDICTION... Michigan ties or loses the turnover battle but owns the TOP. They will need to win this game on execution. If Denard doesn't break one, look for Borges to call plays that produces slow and methodical drives. These are two teams who both rather see their offenses on the field.

ALMOST FORGOT... This is a given but Michigan REALLY can't afford to start off slowly again. The Wolverines have been outscored 21-0 in the 1st quarter so far this year. They've never opened a game with the lead. It'll be interesting to see how this offense operates WITH the lead and I hope that happens this week. Look for Borges to stop experimenting early in the game this week and shotgun his way to the game's first TD.

GAME PREDICTION... Michigan comes out hot which they'll need because SDSU can score right with them. Neither team leads by more than 10 at any point in the game. I see this as a shootout--not in the sense that the combined score will be in the 90s but rather neither defense can get a good stop. FGs will be kicked; I think 2 by Michigan as Rocky Long will dream up some funky things in the red zone Denard won't be used to. At some point, he'll think "Oh I've seen this, it's the 3-3-5" and then be like "Holy crap, this is what the 3-3-5 really is". Dog fight the whole game. Oh my god, please... Michigan 34-30.